This post probably would have been written sooner or later. Ter Stegen received a lot of criticism after the match against Monaco. He did make a mistake, that’s a fact, but those who criticized the goalkeeper with reason had already done so before. I also immediately emphasized that this isn’t just about one mistake, but rather about the long term.
But to cut a long story short, a new goalkeeper was needed. The 2025/26 season should not have started with Ter Stegen (in my opinion, not even this season), but due to the injury, this choice became a necessity.
For those who don’t know, Barcelona defeated Villarreal 5-1 on Sunday afternoon with a heavily rotated starting 11. Midway through the match, after a Ter Stegen save led to a corner, his knee was struck during a challenge. The doctors diagnosed a serious knee injury, making it certain that we’ve seen Ter Stegen in the starting lineup for the last time this season. But is it just for this season? Or his entire time at the club?
I’ll try to analyze this from an analytical perspective, examining Ter Stegen, Barcelona’s general goalkeeper situation, and the possible short-term and long-term candidates.
But what kind of goalkeeper does Hansi Flick’s Barça need? Ever since Victor Valdés, it's been a given that Barça’s goalkeeper excels with their feet. This was also true under Xavi. The Catalan coach operated with an extremely conservative 4-1 build-up, meaning the goalkeeper had to be exceptional in progressive passing as well.
Nothing illustrates this better than the fact that Ter Stegen’s average goal-kick length has decreased by more than 6 meters. This is slightly skewed by the fact that Barça hasn’t faced a true high-pressing team yet, but such teams are now very rare in La Liga.
Another key factor is the emergence of Cubarsi. The Spanish teenager is exceptional with the ball, reaching levels comparable to Laporte. Next to him, Iñigo Martínez usually plays, whose passes (especially long ones) are also outstanding. So, for ball distribution, the next goalkeeper needs to be very good, but in my opinion, this is the least important of the three key criteria.
So, what are the other three criteria? Preventing shots (sweeping outside the box, claiming crosses) and stopping traditional on-target shots.
Let’s look at Barcelona’s pressing structure:
As seen in this image, Barcelona plays with a very aggressive pressing structure. Due to the full-backs pushing forward, the center-backs have to shift wide, leaving a huge area behind the team. Barça has the highest average defensive line in the entire Top 5 leagues, and their PPDA is also very low. Therefore, sweeping is crucial. I have a candidate who excels at this and whom Barça fans saw quite a lot last year. But more on him later...
The third criterion is shot-stopping. A team’s defensive performance is often measured by the xG conceded. If the xG conceded is high, the goalkeeper has a lot of work; if low, then less. But it also matters what kind of shots they face.
If an opponent gets a chance against Barcelona, it’s often a very high-quality one. Ter Stegen had the second-fewest saves to make in the entire league, only Courtois had fewer. So, the ideal future goalkeeper needs to excel at stopping one-on-one chances.
Ter Stegen meets the first criterion (IP). He’s not exceptional, but not bad with his feet either. I know, dear Barça fans, he made a big mistake against Monaco, but we don’t judge a player based on one mistake. 6/10
In the second category, he’s also not bad, but much better than his backup. He rarely comes out of the box, but when he does, he handles it. 6/10
Shot-stopping: Here, I also can’t give him more than an average score. In his last 6 seasons, he’s only had a positive difference between goals conceded and shot quality twice. However, his season two years ago was outstanding. He was one of the most important players in winning the league title, outperforming his PSxG by 8.7. But with goalkeepers, this kind of inconsistency is common. All goalkeepers have terrible and brilliant seasons (at this level).
That’s why consistency is key, and in this, Ter Stegen isn’t good. There are many technical errors in his saves, like goals conceded at the near post, etc. 5/10.
But who is the perfect candidate I mentioned earlier?
Alvaro Valles.:
The 27-year-old Spanish goalkeeper is currently playing for Las Palmas. Last season, the team's head coach was García Pimienta. His playing style, developed during his time at La Masia, was quite unique. Let’s look at their pressing—last season, they posted almost identical numbers to Barça this year.
An incredibly high defensive line, but they didn’t always apply pressure on the player with the ball, leaving a lot of space behind the defensive line. In sweeping actions outside the box, he ranks in the top 1% when considering the Top 5 leagues.
That’s why preventing shots and sweeping are so important, as we highlighted in the case of Barça.
9/10
He’s also outstanding with his feet, ranking in the top 1% for most ball touches. His short passes are brilliant as well. However, his long passes are not exceptional, with only 39% accuracy, which is quite low compared to Ter Stegen’s 64%. But in last season’s Las Palmas system, this wasn’t an important trait, and it won’t be crucial at Barça either.
8/10
Let’s look at the third and perhaps most important criterion: shot-stopping. The number and quality of shots he faced were average. Despite that, he produced a positive difference of over 7 goals, meaning he saved his team from conceding more than 7 goals. And this wasn’t an outlier performance—he outperformed his PSxG by at least 4 in each of the previous two seasons as well.
So, he appears to be exceptional in shot-stopping too. He might have a weaker season ahead, but statistics are generally predictive indicators, showing probabilities—and they are positive.
9/10
His situation at the club is quite unusual. His contract expires next year, and he has refused to extend it. He wants to leave on a free transfer, which is why his club isn’t playing him. This means Barcelona could acquire him for a very favorable price in the winter (2-3 million) or for free in the summer. The downside is that in this case, Peña would have to be the starting goalkeeper for another 3 months, and I don’t consider him a good solution.
Wojciech Szczeşny:
To be honest, writing his name correctly took almost as long as writing the earlier part of the article.
But what kind of goalkeeper is the Pole? He’s a true shot-stopper. He’s not the player who will organize play under pressure or sweep outside the box. But he’s an incredible line goalkeeper. His top 3 qualities are his reflexes, height, and penalty-saving ability. In that, he’s truly world-class. Over the past 365 days, he’s saved more than 33% of penalties, while Ter Stegen has saved exactly 0 in that period. Over his entire time at Barça, he has saved 9% of penalties, while Szczęsny has saved 30%.
In addition, he has incredible experience—Arsenal, Roma, and Juventus. Not a bad résumé. According to Fabrizio Romano, he’s likely willing to join with almost zero wages and on a short-term contract.
Just to evaluate every goalkeeper fairly, Szczęsny scores 4-5 points on the first two criteria. However, for shot-stopping, he earns a solid 8-9 points. So, compared to Keylor Navas or Adán, he would be the ideal (very) short-term option.
My solution:
Until January: 1.: Szczęsny
2.: Pena
After January: 1.: Valles
2.: Szczęsny
Ter Stegen is a club legend, and that’s a fact. I wish him a speedy recovery; he deserves everyone’s love (regardless of their favorite team). But it’s time to say goodbye.
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